A Quick Summary and Overview
The 2025 holiday season brings significant supply chain challenges for businesses across Canada and the US. From port congestion and cross-border shipping complications to labour shortages and tariff impacts, companies need to prepare now. Global freight disruptions and Chinese New Year shutdowns will affect inventory availability, while consumer demand shifts toward essentials and value purchases. This guide explores the major holiday supply chain issues you’ll face and provides actionable solutions to keep your business running smoothly during the busiest time of year.
Why This Holiday Season Will Test Your Supply Chain
The holiday rush is approaching, and this year’s supply chain landscape looks more complex than ever. With e-commerce continuing to grow and global trade facing new pressures, businesses need to understand what’s coming and how to adapt. Whether you’re a retailer preparing for Black Friday or a manufacturer ensuring product availability, the 2025 holiday season presents unique challenges.
What makes this year different? A combination of factors including tariff changes, labour market shifts, and evolving consumer behavior are creating a perfect storm. Canadian businesses face particular challenges with cross-border shipping and port congestion. Meanwhile, global events like Chinese New Year shutdowns will impact production schedules months before the holidays arrive.
Let’s explore the key supply chain issues you can expect this holiday season and, more importantly, how MacMillan Supply Chain Group can help you navigate them successfully.
Port Congestion and Shipping Delays: The First Hurdle
Port congestion in Canada remains one of the biggest obstacles this holiday season. Major ports like Vancouver and Halifax are already experiencing backups that will only worsen as peak season approaches. When ships can’t dock and unload promptly, the entire supply chain feels the ripple effect.
What’s causing these bottlenecks? Several factors are at play:
- Record import volumes as retailers stock up early for the holidays
- Weather disruptions affecting loading and unloading schedules
- Equipment shortages (containers, chassis, etc.) at key ports
- Labour constraints limiting port operating capacity
For businesses shipping to or within Canada, these delays mean planning further ahead than ever. Products that once took 2-3 days to clear ports might now take 7-10 days or longer. This extended timeline affects everything downstream, from warehouse receiving to store shelves.
Canadian shipping delays also impact cross-border trade with the US. When goods are stuck at ports, trucks sit idle waiting for loads, creating a domino effect of delays. Smart businesses are already adjusting their timelines, building in buffer days, and working with experienced 3PL partners like MacMillan who understand these local challenges and can help navigate them effectively.
Labour Shortages and Warehouse Capacity Constraints
Labour shortages in warehouses continue to plague the supply chain industry as we head into the holiday season. Finding and retaining qualified workers for picking, packing, and shipping operations remains challenging across Canada. When you combine this with the seasonal surge in order volume, you have a recipe for potential fulfillment disasters.
The numbers tell the story:
- Warehouse job openings are up 20% compared to last year
- Turnover rates in logistics positions hover around 40%
- Training new staff takes valuable time during the busiest season
- Overtime costs are skyrocketing as existing teams stretch to meet demand
This labour crunch hits hardest during peak season logistics operations when order volumes can triple or quadruple overnight. Warehouses that normally process 5,000 orders daily might suddenly face 20,000 orders with the same staff. The result? Longer processing times, more errors, and frustrated customers.
Warehouse capacity is equally concerning. With businesses ordering earlier to avoid delays, storage space is at a premium. Many facilities are already at 85-90% capacity months before the holiday rush begins. This leaves little flexibility for unexpected inventory surges or returns processing. Companies without solid warehousing solutions in Canada find themselves scrambling for expensive short-term options or facing stockouts during critical selling periods.
Inventory Challenges and Supply Uncertainties
Just-in-time inventory challenges have never been more apparent than during this holiday season. The once-reliable system of ordering precisely what you need when you need it has become increasingly risky. With global freight disruptions affecting shipping times and availability, businesses can no longer count on predictable replenishment cycles.
What makes inventory management particularly difficult this year:
- Longer lead times from overseas suppliers (especially Asia)
- Unpredictable transit delays once goods are shipped
- Higher costs forcing difficult decisions about stock levels
- Changing consumer demand patterns making forecasting trickier
Chinese New Year shutdowns present another inventory planning hurdle. Falling in late January/early February 2025, these factory closures will affect production schedules months before the holidays. Businesses that don’t place orders by December 2024 may miss their window for pre-holiday delivery. This means planning for Christmas must happen nearly a year in advance!
Effective inventory management solutions are essential for navigating these uncertainties. Businesses need real-time visibility into stock levels, incoming shipments, and sales trends. Without these tools, you risk either tying up too much capital in excess inventory or missing sales opportunities due to stockouts during the most profitable time of year.
Consumer Behavior and Demand Shifts
Consumer demand shifts are reshaping holiday shopping patterns in significant ways. Economic pressures and changing priorities mean customers aren’t buying the same things or shopping the same way they did in previous years.
Key trends we’re seeing:
- Greater focus on essential purchases over luxury items
- Increased price sensitivity across all product categories
- Earlier shopping to avoid last-minute availability issues
- Growing preference for omnichannel options (buy online, pick up in store)
These shifts directly impact what retailers should stock and how they should position their offerings. Businesses that understand these changing patterns can adjust their inventory mix accordingly, focusing on value-oriented products while maintaining some premium options for less price-sensitive segments.
Tariff impacts on holiday goods are also influencing consumer behavior. Recent tariff changes mean higher prices on many imported products, particularly electronics, toys, and apparel. Retailers must decide whether to absorb these costs (reducing margins) or pass them along to consumers (potentially reducing sales). Either way, tariffs are reshaping what’s available on store shelves and at what price points.
For businesses navigating these demand uncertainties, flexibility is key. The ability to quickly adjust inventory levels, pricing strategies, and promotional calendars can make the difference between a successful holiday season and a disappointing one.
Common Problems with Holiday Supply Chain Management
Beyond the specific challenges we’ve discussed, several common problems tend to plague holiday supply chains year after year:
- Communication breakdowns between suppliers, carriers, and retailers leading to misaligned expectations
- Last-mile delivery challenges as parcel carriers become overwhelmed with volume
- Returns processing backlogs that tie up inventory and working capital
- Visibility gaps that make it impossible to provide accurate delivery estimates
- Cross-border shipping complications with customs delays and documentation issues
- Weather disruptions affecting transportation networks at critical times
- System overloads as e-commerce platforms and inventory systems struggle with peak volumes
These problems compound during the holiday rush, creating cascading failures that can damage customer relationships and brand reputation. The businesses that struggle most are typically those without robust contingency plans or partnerships with experienced logistics providers.
How MacMillan Supply Chain Group Solves Holiday Logistics Challenges
At MacMillan Supply Chain Group, we’ve developed comprehensive solutions to address the holiday supply chain issues facing Canadian and US businesses. Our integrated approach combines strategic planning, flexible resources, and advanced technology to keep your products moving even during the busiest season.
Strategic Port Management and Customs Expertise
We tackle port congestion in Canada head-on with our strategic approach to import management. Our team monitors port conditions daily and adjusts routing accordingly, using alternative entry points when primary ports face delays. For cross-border shipping to Canada, our customs expertise ensures documentation is complete and accurate, minimizing clearance delays at crucial border crossings.
“We’ve developed relationships with customs officials at all major Canadian ports of entry,” explains our Director of Customs Compliance. “This allows us to expedite clearance for our clients’ shipments even during the busiest periods.”
Flexible Warehousing and Labour Solutions
Our network of warehousing solutions across Canada provides the flexibility businesses need during peak season. Rather than committing to fixed space year-round, our clients can scale their storage needs up or down as demand fluctuates. This eliminates the common problem of paying for empty space during slow periods while ensuring sufficient capacity during the holidays.
To address labour shortages in warehouses, we maintain a core team of experienced logistics professionals supplemented by carefully trained seasonal staff. Our advanced workforce management system optimizes scheduling based on anticipated volumes, ensuring appropriate staffing levels without excessive overtime costs.
Advanced Inventory Management Technology
Our proprietary inventory management solution provides real-time visibility across your entire supply chain. This technology enables:
- – Accurate inventory tracking across multiple locations
- Proactive alerts for potential stockouts or overstock situations
- Automated replenishment based on sales velocity and lead times
- Detailed analytics to improve future planning
This visibility is particularly valuable for businesses facing just-in-time inventory challenges during the holiday season. Rather than guessing about stock levels or shipment status, you’ll have precise information to share with customers and make informed decisions.
Peak Season Logistics Planning
We begin holiday planning with our clients months in advance, developing detailed forecasts and contingency plans for various scenarios. This proactive approach includes:
- Analyzing historical data to identify potential bottlenecks
- Securing additional transportation capacity before peak rates apply
- Pre-positioning inventory closer to end customers
- Establishing backup suppliers for critical items
Our experience with global freight disruptions allows us to anticipate problems before they affect your business. For example, we help clients plan around Chinese New Year shutdowns by adjusting production and shipping schedules to avoid the worst congestion periods.
How You Can Avoid Holiday Supply Chain Problems
While partnering with MacMillan Supply Chain Group provides comprehensive protection against holiday supply chain issues, there are several steps you can take immediately to strengthen your position:
- Start planning now – Don’t wait until October to think about holiday logistics. Begin conversations with suppliers, carriers, and 3PL partners immediately to secure capacity and establish expectations.
- Diversify your supplier base – Relying on a single source for critical products creates unnecessary risk. Develop relationships with alternative suppliers who can step in if primary sources face disruptions.
- Build strategic inventory buffers – While just-in-time inventory is efficient, it’s vulnerable during volatile periods. Identify your most critical or profitable products and maintain slightly higher stock levels to protect against disruptions.
- Improve visibility and communication – Ensure you have systems in place to track inventory and shipments across your entire supply chain. Share this information proactively with customers to manage expectations during delays.
- Consider nearshoring options – Products manufactured closer to home face fewer transportation hurdles and customs complications. Evaluate whether some production could be shifted to North American facilities.
Ready to ensure your holiday season runs smoothly? MacMillan Supply Chain Group offers the expertise, resources, and technology to overcome even the most challenging supply chain obstacles. Our team specializes in Canadian logistics with particular strength in GTA operations, cross-border shipping, and last-mile delivery.
Contact MacMillan Supply Chain Group today to discuss your holiday logistics needs and develop a customized plan for success. Don’t let supply chain issues derail your most important selling season—partner with the experts who understand Canadian logistics inside and out.
Frequently Asked Questions About Cross-Docking
Start planning at least 6-9 months before the holiday season. For the 2025 holiday season, you should begin planning in Q1 2025 at the latest. For products manufactured in Asia, especially those affected by Chinese New Year shutdowns, orders should be placed by December 2024 to ensure timely delivery.
The most significant risks include port congestion in Canada, labour shortages in warehouses, tariff impacts on holiday goods, and global freight disruptions. Cross-border shipping to Canada also presents challenges with customs clearance and documentation requirements. Weather disruptions can further complicate transportation during winter months.
Effective inventory management solutions include implementing real-time tracking systems, strategically positioning stock across multiple warehouses, using data analytics to forecast demand, and building modest safety stock for critical items. Working with a 3PL like MacMillan that offers flexible warehousing solutions in Canada can provide additional capacity when you need it most.
Canadian shipping delays typically increase by 30-50% during peak season. Factors contributing to these delays include border crossing congestion, weather conditions affecting northern routes, carrier capacity constraints, and increased parcel volume. Plan for 2-3 additional days for standard shipments and 1-2 additional days for expedited service during November and December.
Tariff impacts on holiday goods include higher costs, potential supply limitations, and longer lead times as suppliers adjust to changing regulations. Review your product sourcing strategy to identify items with significant tariff exposure. Consider alternative sourcing options, pre-buying before tariff implementation dates, or adjusting pricing strategies to maintain margins.
Last-mile delivery challenges intensify during the holidays with package volume increases of 30-40%. Prepare for carrier capacity constraints, delivery delays in rural areas, weather disruptions, and higher costs through surcharges. Consider offering customers flexible delivery options including curbside pickup or collection points to reduce delivery failures.
Consumer demand shifts include earlier shopping (starting in October), increased online purchasing, greater price sensitivity, and preference for retailers offering flexible fulfillment options. This year, we're seeing particular emphasis on value-oriented purchases and essential items over luxury goods, influenced by economic conditions and tariff impacts.
To address labour shortages in warehouses, implement flexible scheduling, competitive compensation packages, automated systems to reduce manual handling, cross-training staff for multiple roles, and partnerships with staffing agencies specializing in logistics personnel. Working with a 3PL like MacMillan can also provide access to trained staff without direct hiring challenges.
To minimize disruption from Chinese New Year shutdowns, place orders at least 60 days before the holiday begins (by early December 2024), identify alternative suppliers outside China for critical items, increase safety stock before the shutdown period, and maintain clear communication with suppliers about production schedules and shipping arrangements.
Cross-border shipping to Canada faces unique challenges during the holidays including increased customs scrutiny, documentation requirements, carrier capacity constraints at major crossings, and weather-related delays. Working with a Canadian 3PL partner like MacMillan Supply Chain Group provides expertise in navigating these challenges with established customs relationships and alternative routing options.
